PH has many old cases, OCTA says – Manila Bulletin
Independent research group OCTA said the number of active cases in the country is expected to be much lower by around 48% once old cases, from March 2020 to September 2021, are resolved.
“Since November 27, 2021, the DOH [Department of Health] bulletin reported 17,052 active cases, of which only 54.9 percent were either mild or asymptomatic. With moderate, severe and critical (MSC) cases accounting for 45% of active cases, the question was why the percentage of MSC cases is so high, ”OCTA said in a document released on Sunday, November 28.
The research group reported that if it compared the DOH case report on July 7, 2021, only 5.2% of active cases were in the MSC group.
“We note that 1,418 cases were dated to 2020, of which 1,124 or 79% were in the MSC group,” OCTA said.
He added that from January 2021 to June 2021, the number of cases still active was 1,781, of which 1,000 or 56% belonged to the MSC group.
In addition, the third quarter of 2021, from July to September 2021, included 4,916 still active cases, of which 4,268 or 87% in the MSC group.
“This means that 8.3% of active cases were cases from 2020, 10.4% were reported in the first half of 2021 and 28.8% were reported in the third quarter of 2021,” OCTA said.
“Most of these cases should have already been resolved, that is to say marked as recovered or deceased,” he said.
OCTA noted that of the 8,115 active cases with a notification date of March 2020 to September 2021, 6,392 or 78.8% were in the MSC group.
“Except in extreme circumstances, cases [are] generally resolve[d] within one to two months, ”he said.
“As an illustration, if we exclude cases dating from March 2020 to September 2021 from the list of active cases, and only count cases reported from October to November 2021, the number of active cases in the database would drop from 17,052 to 8,937, a reduction of 48%, ”he added.
In a data set where only active cases from October to November 2021 are counted, OCTA said the percentage of cases would be: asymptomatic, 9%; sweet, 78%; moderate, 7%; severe, 5%; and critical, 1 percent.
“This distribution is close to being consistent with the distribution of cases by status generally observed in the Philippines,” he said.
OCTA said that while it understands that the database depends on reports from across the country, it cited the importance of analyzing the distribution of new and old active cases in order to understand that there is no has not been a major change in the state of health of COVID. -19 cases, and that the majority of cases are still in the mild and asymptomatic category, once the old cases have been resolved.
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